It's Time for Some Playoff Math

The most hotly contested Decision Day in NWSL history is set for Sunday, with all six games across the league happening at 2:00 p.m. Pacific.

With only 11 points separating Portland in first place from Chicago in 12th, the playoff math is... complicated. But for Angel City, only a few key scenarios matter.

In addition to results, we may have to keep an eye on the tiebreaking rules. The NWSL competition rules state that if two teams are tied on points at the end of the season, their ranking is determined by goal differential. If they also tie on goal differential, the next tiebreaker is total regular-season wins.

With that out of the way, let's break it down.

1. Angel City has to win

No ifs, ands, or buts about it: with ACFC sitting in eighth place with 28 points and the last-place playoff team, OL Reign, two slots above them with 29 points, LA has to beat Portland this weekend to make the postseason. Without those three points, nothing else matters.

2. Other results need to fall in ACFC's favor

With the win, there numerous paths for Angel City to reach at least sixth place, but long story short, the club needs any two of the following three scenarios:

1. OL lose or draw to Chicago.

2. Orlando loses or draws with Houston, or Pride wins, but Angel City passes them in goal differential (ACFC is currently at -3, and Orlando is at -2).

3. One of Gotham, North Carolina, or Washington lose, or any of them draw and Angel City makes up the difference in either goal differential or total wins, depending on the team. Washington and North Carolina play each other, and Spirit have a -2 goal differential and seven wins on the season. That means that with a draw in that game, Angel City will pass Washington no matter what: ACFC would at least tie them on goal differential, and would have one more win.

3. What about hosting?

Because the first- and second-place teams have a bye in the first round of the playoffs, the third- and fourth-place teams get homefield advantage in the quarterfinals.

A third-place finish is not technically out of reach for Angel City, but realistically is all but impossible. Gotham would have to lose or draw, points 1 and 2 above would have to happen, and the North Carolina/Washington game would have to end in a draw—plus ACFC would have to win by ten goals to catch up to the Courage in goal differential.

Finishing fourth is more within the realm of possibility. That would require points 1 and 2 above, plus:

1. A Gotham loss or a draw plus an Angel City win by at least four goals.

2. A draw in the NC/Washington game.